Effects of logistics performance on Vietnam’s exports: a quantitative analysis using the PPML method

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effects of logistics performance on Vietnam’s exports at both the overall level and in specific aspects. We investigate the linkage between logistics performance and Vietnam’s exports based on a panel of bilateral trade from Vietnam to 158 trading partners from 2007 to 2018. Using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method, the positive and significant effects of Vietnam’s and importing countries’ logistics performance on exports are identified. Our estimates become highly consistent after controlling for both time-specific effects and time-invariant country-fixed effects and remain robust to changes in the model specification, contributing reliable empirical evidence to the literature. Considering the specific aspects of logistics performance, we find the significant roles of the ability to track and trace consignments, the quality of logistics services, the customs clearance efficiency, and the timeliness of shipments in trade. From Vietnam’s perspective, improvements in tracking and tracing ability and timeliness can enhance exports to other countries, with larger effects than those of trading partners. Based on these findings, this study provides evidence for policymakers to effectively enhance trade with other countries by developing the national logistics system alongside further logistics cooperation with trading partners and with a greater focus on tracking and tracing ability and timeliness.