Effects of large-scale atmospheric flow and sunshine duration on the evolution of minimum and maximum temperature in Switzerland

Abstract

The evolution of mean annual minimum (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) on the Swiss Plateau shows distinct differences over the last 150 years. TMIN increased relatively steadily by about 3 °C. TMAX increased by only 1.5 °C with substantial decadal variability and hardly any increase until about 1940. However, in the most recent decades, TMAX trends are somewhat larger than TMIN trends. While most aspects of the TMIN evolution can be well explained by the global forcing and the modifying effects of the large-scale atmospheric flow alone, local sunshine duration (SD) information is crucial to explain major features of the TMAX series and the differences between TMIN and TMAX since about 1950. SD shows no clear trend until 1950, a decline from 1950 to 1980 and an increase since 1980 resembling the global dimming and brightening signal. TMAX is strongly influenced by SD and the TMAX evolution can be well reconstructed with local TMIN and SD. Strong TMAX declines are found from 1950 to the 1970s. TMIN shows no trend in this period. Between 1980 and about 2005, both TMIN and TMAX show strong increases caused by the greenhouse gas forcing, decreasing aerosols and probably also decreasing cloud cover. Since about 2005, the increases are weaker. The brightening has weakened and the warming effect of the continuously growing greenhouse gas forcing has additionally been reduced by cooling effects caused by large-scale atmospheric flow anomalies. The reasons for the considerable differences in the TMIN and TMAX evolution prior to 1950 remain unknown and further investigations are needed to shed more light on this disparity.