Abstract
Urbanization, increasing road networks, agricultural intensification, and land abandonment are widespread land change processes found in most European landscapes. As land changes affect animal species and their populations, there is a need to evaluate the effects of future developments on the viability of protected species. In this paper, we model population size and viability of selected indicator species for a selected area in Slovakia. Our results indicate that selected species are viable in the current landscape composition. However, the expected spread of settlement and the increase of road density in this area would likely lead to decline and loss of viability of species. Similarly, continuous land abandonment followed with spontaneous reforestation would likely trigger a decline of grassland species. In contrast, developing a biocorridor and restoration of existing green elements as modeled in our conservation scenario would strongly improve the viability of all species and avoid the impact of the expected developments. Our results underline the actions that prevent further loss of biodiversity in human-dominated landscapes and, thus, have particular importance for landscape planning and decision-making processes.
Highlights
During the last hundred years, more than half the landscapes in Europe exhibited some change driven by human needs [1]
By using the scenario assessment in combination with population modeling, our study provides important support for landscape planning process in Slovakia
As the most probable land change trajectory is scenario 1, we modeled urbanization, which is characterized as the increase of built-up and industrial areas and construction of new roads [2]
Summary
During the last hundred years, more than half the landscapes in Europe exhibited some change driven by human needs [1]. Urbanization and change of the agricultural areas are the most widespread land changes in recent decades [2]. These changes have multiple, often negative impacts on biodiversity and distribution of animal species [3,4], while protected areas worldwide are not isolated from human activity influences [5,6,7]. The increase of urban areas may lead to habitat loss, diminishing habitat area, and a decrease of landscape elements, such as small forested patches, hedgerows, and riparian zones. The environmental consequences of agricultural intensification include the increased use of fertilizers and biocides, land draining, irrigation, and the loss of many biodiversity-rich landscape features [10]. Since the processes of intensification and abandonment are important forces driving central Europe landscape change, the issue is of great concern for landscape planning agencies [14]
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