Abstract
In the last few decades, land use/land cover (LULC) has changed significantly under the influence of local planning and policy implementation, and this has had a profound impact on the regional ecological environment. By taking the Hengduan Mountain region as the study area, this study considered the demands of various commodities and services and applied the CLUMondo model to predict the trajectory of change in the land system for the years 2010–2030. The results indicate that the forest system expands significantly in this time, while the grassland and cropland systems are projected to develop intensively under the three scenarios. The high demand for livestock products is the main cause of the intensification of the grassland system under the TREND scenario, the demand for forests leads to the expansion of the forest land system under the FOREST scenario, and the significant intensification of the cropland system under the CONSERVATION scenario is closely related to an increase in the area of ecological land. The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the optimal management of land systems in other mountainous areas.
Highlights
Land is the spatial carrier of all human activities and the material basis for human survival [1]
This study evaluated the characteristics of the evolution of land systems in the Hengduan Mountain region under different scenarios
The coefficients of the kappa simulation, kappa transition, and kappa location transition were all greater than 0.75. This indicates that the CLUMondo model was highly accurate in simulating changes to the land system in the Hengduan
Summary
Land is the spatial carrier of all human activities and the material basis for human survival [1]. With the increase in population and accelerating urbanization, human activities have had a profound impact on the global natural environment that has manifested as a sharp decrease in biodiversity, soil erosion, and environmental pollution [2,3,4,5]. A large number of studies have been carried out on regional ecological conservation. Researchers have concluded that establishing nature reserves can significantly change the landscape patterns and curb human pressure on evergreen mountain habitats [6], and the migration of refugees from the Cox’s Bazar–Teknaf Peninsula of Bangladesh has severely damaged regional vegetation cover, biomass, and carbon stocks. Conservation-related decisions, priority-based interventions, and public policy are vital for protecting the ecological environment [7]. The transformation from production space to ecological and living spaces has led to an increasingly prominent conflict between the limited production of commodities and services, and growing human demand, especially in ecologically fragile mountainous areas [11,12,13]
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