Abstract

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is often used to evaluate the impacts of different land use scenarios on streamflow and sediment yield, but there is a need for some clear recommendations on how to select the parameter set that defines a given land use scenario and on what is the most appropriate methodology to change the selected parameters when describing possible future conditions. This paper reviews the SWAT formulation to identify the parameters that depend on the land use, performs a sensitivity analysis to determine the ones with larger impacts on the model results and discusses ways to consider future land use conditions. The case study is the Atibaia river basin, with 2838 km2 (São Paulo, Brazil). The parameters identified by sensitivity analysis with the largest impacts on streamflow and sediment yield were the initial curve number for moisture condition II (CN), maximum canopy storage for each land use (CANMX) and the cover and management factor (USLE_C). The identification and appropriate parameter change can provide real estimates of the magnitudes in the land use changes, which were verified in this study. Such information can be used as an instrument for proposing improvements in the basin’s environmental quality and management.

Highlights

  • Understanding the implications of land use change is critical to the river basin planning and remediation efforts that are occurring all over the globe

  • By offering the possibility to assess the behavior of a watershed under different scenarios, hydrological models may be used to predict the consequences of land use changes on the simulated hydrological processes [5]

  • The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [6,7] is the focus of the paper, given its popularity for land use impacts assessment and because its formulation is based on physical parameters, most of which can in theory be measured in the field, facilitating the description of different land use situations

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Summary

Introduction

Understanding the implications of land use change is critical to the river basin planning and remediation efforts that are occurring all over the globe. The impacts of land use modification on river hydrological behavior need to be evaluated when reviewing current and future water availability, assessing river basin degradation processes or identifying the most appropriate measures to control the impacts caused by the disorderly land use change [1,2,3]. By offering the possibility to assess the behavior of a watershed under different scenarios, hydrological models may be used to predict the consequences of land use changes on the simulated hydrological processes [5]. Other popular hydrology models that may be used to assess land use

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