Abstract
Human activities and the demand for biomass and biobased energy can lead to changes in land use. Songyuan City is a typical farming-pastoral ecotone in northeast China, to investigate the land use change in this area, the Landsat TM/OLI remote sensing images in 2000, 2010 and 2019 were analyzed. The land use in the ecotone in 2030 was predicted, as well as the changing characteristic of its ecosystem services value (ESV). The results showed that paddy field has had the highest annual growth rate and the ESV has increased by 338.6 million Chinese Yuan (CNY) in the past 19 years. The areas of dry field, paddy field, water bodies, wetland, and building land showed an upward trend with the dry field having the most growth of 49,596 hm2, whereas the areas of forestland, meadowland, and unused land showed a downward trend; and ESV increases from 3.5714 billion CNY in 2010 to 3.6236 billion CNY in 2030. Accuracy check and sensitivity analysis indicated a reliable result, which could provide reference to the ecologically sustainable development.
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