Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Siamese Eld's Deer (Rucervus eldii siamensis) Distribution in the Transboundary Conservation Area in Thailand, Cambodia, and Lao PDR

Yongyut Trisurat,Naris Bhumpakphan

doi:10.3389/fenvs.2018.00035

Abstract

The Emerald Triangle Protected Forests Complex (ETFC) is recognized as a globally outstanding area for transboundary biodiversity conservation. Eld’s deer (Rucervus eldii) include three subspecies; R. eldii siamensis, R. eldii eldii, and R. eldii thamin. This research focused on Siamese Eld’s deer (R. eldii siamense), which is one of the 10 critically endangered vertebrates found in the ETFC. Its habitats are threatened by forest conversion to agriculture and human settlements, as well as by future climate change. The objectives of this article were to predict Siamese Eld’s deer distribution and to determine potential shifts in its suitable habitat as the results of different land use and climate change scenarios in 2030. Occurrence data for Siamese Eld’s deer were gathered from literature and field surveys. The Maximum Entropy (Maxent) and logistic regression models were used to generate suitable habitats. The model that generated the greatest accuracy was selected for distribution mapping. The results showed 142 records of Siamese Eld’s deer. The predicted distribution map generated from the logistic regression model provided greater accuracy (90%) than the Maxent (80%). The predicted habitats of Siamese Eld’s deer covered 6.0% of the ETFC landscape by 2013. They were concentrated in the protected areas of the lowland forests of Cambodia and Lao PDR. The land use change only did not affect the distribution of Siamese Eld's Deer, but climate change would impact the distribution substantially. In addition, the combination of all future land use and climate changes would significantly reduce the current habitat to approximately 2.6% of the ETFC landscape, which is a decline 58.0%. The lowest extent of 2.5% was predicted for the combination of unsustainable land use and climate change scenario. Recommendations on biodiversity conservation cooperation among the three countries, habitat protection and ex-situ conservation were proposed.

Highlights

The Emerald Triangle Protected Forests Complex (ETFC) is situated along the tri-national borders between Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Thailand
ATotal absence record = 36; bTotal presence record = 34. We presented these predicted suitable maps derived from the logistic regression and the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) to park rangers from Cambodia and Lao PDR where Siamese Eld’s deer still remains
We focused on the ETFC situated along the trinational borders between Thailand, Cambodia, and Lao PDR, which already were determined as important habitat for R. eldii siamense or Siamese Eld’ deer (Lekagul and McNeely, 1988; Round, 1998; McShea et al, 2005; Weiler, 2005)

Summary

Introduction

The Emerald Triangle Protected Forests Complex (ETFC) is situated along the tri-national borders between Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Thailand. The transboundary forest landscapes contain globally important habitats for more than 50 threatened mammal species (Round, 1998; Clements, 2004; Cambodia Forestry Administration, 2010; Bhumpakphan, 2015) such as Asian elephant (Elephas maximus), banteng (Bos javanicus), Siamese Eld’s deer (Rucervus eldii siamese) and the clouded leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) These wide-ranging mammal species migrate across the tri-national boundaries depending on the seasonal variation of food and water availability (Round, 1998; Bhumpakphan, 2015). More than 90% were estimated in protected forests along the tri-national borders or ETFC and in eastern Cambodia (McShea et al, 2005)

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