Effects of Land Prices on the Long-distance Migration in Postwar Japan

Abstract

In Japan, land prices had increased rapidly until around 1990, especially in the major metropolitan areas between the Bubble economies. So we think that differentials of land prices can be one of the important determinants of long-distance migration. We performed lots of regression analyses using net migration rates NM as dependent variable and real personal income RI, land price LP and present value of lifetime income PV as independent variables. PV is calculated as Sjaastad (1962)'s cost associated with residence of human capital model, using lifetime income and the money to get lot for new house. The results of our analysis are summarized as follows. First, time series regression analysis of Tokyo and Nagoya major metropolitan area's net migration rates to rural areas shows that coefficients of LP have significant negative sign. Second, cross section regression analysis of 10 areas in Japan shows that LP has significant negative coefficients from 1965-70 to 1990-95. Third, cross section regression analysis of 10 areas in return migration in their twenties shows that PV has significant positive coefficients. Therefore we can conclude that land prices have negative effects on the long-distance migration in post-war Japan.JEL classification: R23