Effects of juvenile size at release and early marine growth on adult return rates for Hokkaido chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in relation to sea surface temperature

Abstract

Using path analyses, we investigated relationships between size at release from hatcheries, the early marine growth of juveniles, and adult return rates for chum salmon from five river stocks of Hokkaido, Japan, in relation to sea surface temperature during ocean residence. Marine growth was estimated using scales collected from 11 760 adults of age 0.3 (1980–2004). The growth and survival of each stock appeared to have a different suite of regulatory processes. Interannual variability in return rates was mainly regulated by size at release in two stocks from the Sea of Okhotsk. A similar relationship was found in one stock from the Sea of Japan, but growth during coastal residency also affected their return rates. In two stocks from the Pacific coast of Hokkaido, variability in return rates was not related to size at release or to the coastal growth of juveniles, but with offshore growth in the Sea of Okhotsk, the nursery area for juveniles after leaving Japanese coastal waters. Whereas coastal growth tended to be negatively correlated with size at release in some stocks, offshore growth was positively associated with the August–November sea surface temperature in all stocks. This study confirmed that mortality of juvenile salmon occurred in two phases, during the coastal residency and the late period of the growing season, but the relative importance of both phases varied by stock and region, which probably regulated year-class strength of Hokkaido chum salmon.