Abstract
SUMMARY1. In this study we predict stream sensitivity to non‐point source pollution based on the non‐linear responses of hydrological regimes and associated loadings of non‐point source pollutants to catchment properties. We assessed two hydrologically based thresholds of impairment, one for catchment storage (5–10%) and one for mature forest (<50% versus >60% of catchment in mature forest cover) across two different hydrogeomorphic regions within the Northern Lakes and Forest (NLF) ecoregion: the North Shore [predominantly within the North Shore Highlands Ecological Unit] and the South Shore (predominantly within the Lake Superior Clay Plain Ecological Unit). Water quality samples were collected and analysed during peak snowmelt and baseflow conditions from 24 second‐order streams grouped as follows: three in each region × catchment storage × mature forest class.2. Water quality was affected by a combination of regional influences, catchment storage and mature forest. Regional differences were significant for suspended solids, phosphorus, nitrogen: phosphorus ratios, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and alkalinity. Catchment storage was significantly correlated with dissolved silica during the early to mid‐growing season, and with DOC, specific conductance and alkalinity during all seasons. Total nitrogen and dissolved nitrogen were consistently less in low mature forest than in high mature forest catchments. Catchment storage interacted with the influence of mature forest for only two metrics: colour and the soluble inorganic nitrogen : phosphorus ratio.3. Significant interaction terms (region by mature forest or region by storage) suggest differences in regional sensitivity for conductance, alkalinity, total organic carbon, and colour, as well as possible shifts in thresholds of impact across region or mature forest class.4. Use of the NLF Ecoregion alone as a basis for setting regional water quality criteria would lead to the misinterpretation of reference condition and assessment of condition. There were pronounced differences in background water quality between the North and South Shore streams, particularly for parameters related to differences in soil parent material and glacial history. A stratified random sampling design for baseflow and snowmelt stream water quality based on both hydrogeomorphic region and catchment attributes improves assessments of both reference condition and differences in regional sensitivity.
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