Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study.

Cliona Ni Mhurchu,Kelechi Nnoaham,Tony Blakely,Murat Genc,Mike Rayner,Helen Eyles,Peter Scarborough,Anja Mizdrak,Jean Adams

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0128477

Cliona Ni Mhurchu, Kelechi Nnoaham + Show 7 more

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0128477

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Abstract

BackgroundHealth-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand.MethodsA macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated.FindingsA 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms.ConclusionsHealth-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts.

Highlights

Poor diets account for a substantial proportion of death and disability worldwide, with the major dietary risks being low fruit intake and high salt [1]
Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts
We modelled flat rate taxes of 20% applied to the retail price of major food group contributors to targeted nutrients (Table 1), e.g. the saturated fat tax was applied to food groups that contributed 5% or more to saturated fat intakes in New Zealand [17]

Summary

Introduction

Poor diets account for a substantial proportion of death and disability worldwide, with the major dietary risks being low fruit intake and high salt [1]. In 2011, Denmark introduced a saturated fat tax (since repealed); Hungary implemented a tax on foods high in sugar, sodium or caffeine; France applied a tax on soft drinks; and Finland a tax on confectionery [7]. This year, Mexico, which has the second highest rate of obesity in the OECD, implemented a law imposing taxes on sugar-sweetened drinks and foods high in saturated fat, sugar and sodium [10]. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand

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