Abstract
Public health policies with varying degrees of restriction have been imposed around the world to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of the implementation of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran, using an intervention time series analysis. Daily data on COVID-19 cases registered between February 19 and May 2, 2020 were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO)'s website. Using an intervention time series modeling, the effect of two government policies on the number of confirmed cases were evaluated, namely the closing of schools and universities, and the implementation of social distancing measures. Furthermore, the effect of the Nowruz holidays as a non-intervention factor for the spread of COVID-19 was also analyzed. The results showed that, after the implementation of the first intervention, i.e., the closing of universities and schools, no statistically significant change was found in the number of new confirmed cases. The Nowruz holidays was followed by a significant increase in new cases (1,872.20; 95% CI, 1,257.60 to 2,476.79; p<0.001)), while the implementation of social distancing measures was followed by a significant decrease in such cases (2,182.80; 95% CI, 1,556.56 to 2,809.04; p<0.001). The Nowruz holidays and the implementation of social distancing measures in Iran were related to a significant increase and decrease in COVID-19 cases, respectively. These results highlight the necessity of measuring the effect of health and social interventions for their future implementations.
Highlights
As a global pandemic, COVID-19 has resulted in 403,080 deaths [1, 2] and 7,028,020 confirmed cases as of June 7, 2020
The Nowruz holidays was followed by a significant increase in new cases (1,872.20; 95% Confidence interval (CI), 1,257.60 to 2,476.79; p
The Nowruz holidays and the implementation of social distancing measures in Iran were related to a significant increase and decrease in COVID-19 cases, respectively
Summary
COVID-19 has resulted in 403,080 deaths [1, 2] and 7,028,020 confirmed cases as of June 7, 2020. COVID-19 can lead to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), anemia, secondary infection, acute cardiac injury, fever, fatigue, dry cough, and to death [3, 4]. Due to these serious symptoms, countries have implemented COVID-19-related policies to limit the spread of the disease and prevent the exhaustion of the national health system’s resources and capacities [5]. Siedner et al used intervention time series analysis to investigate whether the implementation of social distancing measures was associated with a reduction in the mean daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in US states Their results showed that social distancing measures were associated with a decrease in pandemic growth [6]. We aimed to evaluate the effects of the implementation of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran, using an intervention time series analysis
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