Abstract
The response of tidally driven processes on the Patagonian Shelf to sea-level rise (SLR) is revisited using large but realistic levels of change in a numerical tidal model. The results relate to previous studies through significant differences in the impact, depending on how SLR is implemented. This is true for how the boundary at the coastline is treated, i.e., if we allow for inundation of land or assume flood defences along the coast, but also for how the sea-level change itself is implemented. Simulations with uniform SLR provide a different, and slightly larger, response than do runs where SLR is based on observed trends. In all cases, the effect on the tidal amplitudes is patchy, with alternating increases and decreases in amplitude along the shelf. Furthermore, simulations with a realistic future change in vertical stratification, thus affecting tidal conversion rates, imply that there may be a small but significant decrease in the amplitudes along the coast. Associated processes, e.g., the location of mixing fronts and potential impacts on biogeochemical cycles on the shelf are also discussed.
Highlights
Global sea-level rise (SLR) occurred at an average rate of 1.7 mm yr−1 during the 20th century, and has since accelerated to 3.2 mm yr−1 (Church et al, 2013; Church and White, 2011a, 2006b; Woodworth et al, 2011)
Pelling et al (2013b) showed that anthropogenic land reclamation in the Bohai Sea has led to changes in the tide equivalent to those which could be expected from realistic levels of future SLR, and Clara et al (2015) investigated the response of the Patagonian Shelf tides to uniform sea-level rise, and find significant changes in tidal dissipation rates and the location of tidal mixing fronts
The difference between previous investigations of tides and SLR is 4-fold: we will use a SLR signal based on observed trends, we will investigate changes in the tides due to future warming, we use an unprecedented model resolution of the Patagonian shelf at 1/30◦ in both latitude and longitude leading to a very high accuracy, and we will put the changes into a dynamical context
Summary
Global sea-level rise (SLR) occurred at an average rate of 1.7 mm yr−1 during the 20th century, and has since accelerated to 3.2 mm yr−1 (Church et al, 2013; Church and White, 2011a, 2006b; Woodworth et al, 2011). Pelling et al (2013b) showed that anthropogenic land reclamation in the Bohai Sea has led to changes in the tide equivalent to those which could be expected from realistic levels of future SLR, and Clara et al (2015) investigated the response of the Patagonian Shelf tides to uniform sea-level rise, and find significant changes in tidal dissipation rates and the location of tidal mixing fronts. They suggest that the M2 amplitude changes non-uniformly with (uniform) SLR.
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