Effects of future land use change on the regional climate in China

Abstract

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is one of the important human forcing on climate. However, it is difficult to infer how LUCC will affect climate in the future from the effects of previous LUCC on regional climates in the past. Thus, based on the land cover data recommended by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), a regional climate model (RegCM4) was used to investigate the climate effects of future land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (2036-2050), one with the current land use data and the other with future land cover scenario (2050) were conducted. It is noted that future LUCC in China is mainly characterized by the transition from the grassland to the forest. Results suggest that the magnitudes and ranges of the changes in temperature and precipitation caused by future LUCC show evident seasonality, which are more prominent in summer and autumn. Significant response of climate to future LUCC mainly happens in Northeast China, North China, the Hetao Area, Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China. Further investigation shows that future LUCC can also produce significant impacts on the atmospheric circulation. LUCC results in abnormal southwesterly wind over extensive areas from the Indian peninsula to the coasts of the South China Sea and South China through the Bay of Bengal. Furthermore, Indian tropical southwest monsoons and South Sea southwest monsoons will both be strong, and the abnormal water vapor convergence from the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean will result in more precipitation in South China.