Abstract
The frequency of extreme meteorological events such as heat waves and rainstorms is predicted to increase with climate change. However, there is still little information about how extreme weather influences reproduction in animals. It may not only affect breeding success but might also alter offspring sex ratio if males and females are differentially sensitive to meteorological conditions during development. We investigated the relationship between meteorological conditions and reproductive success over 6 years in a house sparrow population in central Europe. We found that hatching success increased with the number of extremely hot days (daily maximum >31°C) and decreased with the number of extremely cold days (<16°C) during incubation, although the latter effect held only for clutches with relatively short incubation periods. Fledging success was unrelated to weather variables. However, the frequency of extremely hot days had a negative effect on fledglings’ body mass and tarsus length, although both of these traits were positively related to average temperature. Additionally, fledglings’ body mass increased with the length of period without rainfall before fledging. Male to female ratio among fledglings did not differ from 1:1 and did not vary with weather variables. The magnitude of the effects of extreme meteorological events was usually small, although in some cases comparable to those of ecologically relevant predictors of reproductive success. Our results indicate that meteorological conditions have complex effects on breeding success, as the effects of extreme weather can differ between different aspects of reproduction and also from the effects of overall meteorological conditions.
Highlights
Global average temperature is increasing on the Earth, and this process has been getting faster in the last 50 years [1]
Møller et al [13] have found in a comparative study that birds that did not respond to recent climate change by shifting their spring migration phenology have declining breeding populations, whereas species that advanced their timing of migration have stable or increasing populations in Europe
Our results suggest that warm weather was generally favourable both during the incubation and nestling periods, but extreme heat had a negative effect on nestlings' body size, whereas dry periods up to 2-3 weeks resulted in higher nestling weight
Summary
Global average temperature is increasing on the Earth, and this process has been getting faster in the last 50 years [1]. Møller et al [13] have found in a comparative study that birds that did not respond to recent climate change by shifting their spring migration phenology have declining breeding populations, whereas species that advanced their timing of migration have stable or increasing populations in Europe. This finding is supported by a similar study on the phenology of egg-laying [14]. Understanding and predicting these effects requires detailed knowledge about the effects of different aspects of weather on the biota
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