Effects of Environmental Stress on Forest Crown Condition in Europe. Part IV: Statistical Analysis of Relationships

Abstract

Site-specific estimates for various environmentalstress factors were related with measured crowncondition data at a systematic 16 ×: 16 km2 gridover Europe, according to previously statedhypotheses, using a multiple regression approach,including interactions, and lagged effects of stressfactors. Methodological differences among countriesaccounted for >30% of the variation in defoliation.Nevertheless, crown condition was found to varynaturally with tree age, altitude, drought stress and,most likely, also pathogenic fungi and insects.Significant impacts of air pollution (specificallyozone but also NOx, SOx and acid deposition)were found at regional levels in parts of centralEurope, particularly for deciduous species. Impactsseemed less significant for conifers, especially forspruce, but this might be affected by confoundingeffects or strong correlations between (a harsh)climate and (low) atmospheric deposition in the areawhere spruce predominates. National studies indicatethat ozone and acid deposition can have a significanteffect on the defoliation of spruce as well. Weconclude that while forest condition varies naturally,continued emissions will contribute further to forestdecline in the long term.