Effects of environmental stress on blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) harvests in Chesapeake Bay tributaries

Abstract

Trotline blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) fishermen in the Patuxent, Chester, and Choptank tributaries of Chesapeake Bay set their gear in areas where the water quality, characterized by average mid-channel bottom dissolved oxygen, varies across the river systems and over the fishing season. Two harvest production models are developed to capture the potential effects of this source of environmental stress. One model treats the impact of water quality as influencing the availability of crabs to the gear, while the second treats the impact as another source of mortality. Both models are estimated assuming that dissolved oxygen has no effect on crab harvests above an upper threshold of 5 mg I−1. Contrary to the mortality model, the availability model produces estimates that are consistent with our prior beliefs that productivity will be negatively impacted by poor water quality. To determine the percentage of the available crab stock in an area that will be harvested by a given amount of gear under different water quality conditions a simulation of the availability model is developed. The simulations show that a decline in average mid-channel bottom dissolved oxygen in the Patuxent River to 4 mg I−1 may lead to a 48% decline in the percentage of the blue crab population in the area that will be harvested with the same amount of fishing effort.