Abstract
The tropical montane cloud forests are recognized as one of the most biodiverse ecosystems. In spite of this, they are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world. This study integrates three ecological approaches generally studied separately: climate change scenery, ecological niche and population dynamics of Oreomunnea mexicana (an endangered and relict species), to understand how environmental change affects the population structure in the cloud forest that will allow its conservation. Potential distribution under future climatic scenarios of the species at national and regional levels was generated from the Maxent algorithm. Also, the current abundance, distribution and the ecological niche of the species were analyzed at the regional level. Changes in potential distribution under two climatic models suggest a habitat reduction from 36% to 55% nationally, and 2% to 9% at a regional level, for 2050 and 2070, respectively. The current distribution of the species is fragmented and consists of subpopulations that have spatial structures of aggregated populations and a size structure in reversed “J” form. The ecological niche of the species is highly specialized and sensitive to environmental changes. O. mexicana is a flagship species of biological and cultural importance to the region’s inhabitants and could be fundamental to the conservation of tropical montane cloud forests.
Highlights
The tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) are recognized as one of the most biodiverse ecosystems and a reservoir of endemic species, with a high strategic value for conservation [1] because of their key role in the maintenance of ecosystem services [2,3]
In order to contribute to the efforts of cloud forest conservation, this study provides an overview about the effects of climate change in the distribution and environmental vulnerability of O. mexicana, which was studied as an outstanding representative of a relict and threatened flora to help demonstrate potential changes in the cloud forest and provide opportunities for its conservation
The current distribution in the Sierra Juárez obtained from local knowledge and field study, was an area of 100 km2 (22% of the area predicted by the model) with discontinuous and patchy distribution in the middle of the cloud forest at an altitude range of 1356–1990 m above sea level and slopes of 20◦ to 60◦
Summary
The tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) are recognized as one of the most biodiverse ecosystems and a reservoir of endemic species, with a high strategic value for conservation [1] because of their key role in the maintenance of ecosystem services [2,3]. TMCF are characterized by restrictive environmental requirements and a narrow and fragmented distribution [4] They are considered extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic impact [5], and are classified among the most endangered ecosystems due to processes of change in land use and climate change [3,6]. For this reason, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), World Conservation Monitoring. Recent studies predicted that by 2050 over 60% of TMCF would be lost because of the effects of climate change, with drastic impacts on the distribution of endemic species [4,8]
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