Effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on human visceral leishmaniasis in the Brazilian State of Mato Grosso do Sul.

Antonio Brandão Da Silva Neto,Alessandra Gutierrez De Oliveira,Everton Falcão De Oliveira,Antonio Conceição Paranhos Filho,César Claudio Cáceres Encina,Helen Rezende De Figueiredo

doi:10.1590/0074-02760190298

Antonio Brandão Da Silva Neto, Alessandra Gutierrez De Oliveira + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1590/0074-02760190298

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Abstract

BACKGROUND Leishmaniases are considered a major public health problem in South America, specifically in Brazil. Moreover, the transmission and epidemiology of leishmaniasis are possibly associated with climatic and environmental variations.OBJECTIVE This study aimed to assess the association between the extreme climatic phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the maximum and minimum variations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture and the incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, from 2002 to 2015.METHODS The Niño 3.4 index was used for the ENSO variation. The other climatic data were obtained from the climatic tool TerraClimate. Records regarding VL were obtained from the Notification of Injury Information System.FINDINGS From 2002 to 2015, there were 3,137 cases of VL recorded in MS. The annual incidence of the disease was negatively associated with the ENSO index and soil moisture in MS. The VL incidence increased during the negative phase of ENSO and decreased during the positive phase.MAIN CONCLUSIONS The results demonstrated that the interannual cycles of incidence of human VL are significantly associated with the occurrence of the ENSO phenomenon and its phases, El Niño and La Niña.

Highlights

Leishmaniases are considered a major public health problem in South America, in Brazil
MAIN CONCLUSIONS The results demonstrated that the interannual cycles of incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) are significantly associated with the occurrence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and its phases, El Niño and La Niña
Based on the mean rainfall (Fig. 4E), a low incidence of VL during 2009, 2014, and 2015, years with high rainfall records and positive ENSO means, was observed. It seems that the spatial distribution pattern of VL cases in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) is concentrated in the same areas described by Antonialli et al[10] from 1993 to 2004, with the highest

Summary

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the association between the extreme climatic phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the maximum and minimum variations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture and the incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, from 2002 to 2015

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MATERIALS AND METHODS

RESULTS

DISCUSSION