Effects of El Nino southern oscillation events on rainfall variability over northeast Ethiopia

Abstract

This paper analyzed the effects of various stages of El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) events on the variability of temporal and spatial summer rainfall over northeast Ethiopia, where multiple hazards occurred. For this paper, precipitation and ENSO index data were used from 1983 to 2015. To investigate the relationship between summer rainfall and ENSO stages over the region, correlation and composite analysis was used. The composite analysis aimed to determine the link between sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall in the study area. The findings show that there is a strong and positive connection between southern India, the Atlantic, and most of the western Pacific Ocean and rainfall in northeastern Ethiopia. The results also showed that La Nina’s development stage favors increased rainfall with extended spatial distribution over the region and that El Nino’s development stage favors less rainfall with the restricted spatial distribution. Future progress in the ENSO forecast is therefore important for future increases in summer rainfall in northeast Ethiopia.