Effects of Direct Air Capture Technology Availability on Stranded Assets and Committed Emissions in the Power Sector

Shreekar Pradhan,Andres F Clarens,Haewon Mcjeon,Jay Fuhrman,Scott C Doney,William M Shobe,Matthew Binsted

doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.660787

Abstract

We examine the effects of negative emission technologies availability on fossil fuel-based electricity generating assets under deep decarbonization trajectories. Our study focuses on potential premature retirements (stranding) and committed emissions of existing power plants globally and the effects of deploying direct air carbon capture and biomass-based carbon capture and sequestration technologies. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model, to simulate the global supply of electricity under a climate mitigation scenario that limits global warming to 1.5–2°C temperature increase over the century. Our results show that the availability of direct air capture (DAC) technologies reduces the stranding of existing coal and gas based conventional power plants and delays any stranding further into the future. DAC deployment under the climate mitigation goal of limiting the end-of-century warming to 1.5–2°C would reduce the stranding of power generation from 250 to 350 GW peaking during 2035-2040 to 130-150 GW in years 2050-2060. With the availability of direct air capture and carbon storage technologies, the carbon budget to meet the climate goal of limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5–2°C would require abating 28–33% of 564 Gt CO2 -the total committed CO2 emissions from the existing power plants vs. a 46–57% reduction in the scenario without direct air capture and carbon storage technologies.

Highlights

Limiting global warming to +1.5◦to 2◦C by the end of this century requires substantial reduction in global CO2 emissions (IPCC, 2014, 2018)
Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-5.3v), an integrated assessment model, we investigate the effects on power generation capacity stranding attributable to the availability of a suite of negative emission technologies (NETs) technologies including direct air capture (DAC), based carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) and AR
To achieve the same radiative forcing by the end of century (Figure 2F), having DAC or not having DAC, both paths should lead to nearly the same cumulative emissions, the path having DAC begins with higher CO2 emissions than the path without DAC (Figures 2A,E)

Summary

Introduction

Limiting global warming to +1.5◦to 2◦C by the end of this century requires substantial reduction in global CO2 emissions (IPCC, 2014, 2018). Near-term climate mitigation policy signals from countries with the greatest emissions imply a large emissions gap from the emission level required to achieve climate goals (UNEP, 2018). Even countries promising substantial efforts to reduce emissions continue to invest in fossil-fuel infrastructure. There is a growing concern over the potential economic effects of impending lock-in and later stranding of fossil fuel infrastructure assets due to future climate mitigation policies (Carney, 2015; UNEP, 2018; González-Mahecha et al, 2019; Rep. Casten, 2019; Tong et al, 2019). Near-term lock-in of fossil fuel capacity makes future mitigation costly and less politically palatable, since most future policy scenarios for achieving the well-below 2◦C temperature target will require the premature decommissioning of large stocks of valuable assets

Methods

Results

Conclusion