Effects of conflict on agriculture: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency

Abstract

Abstract We investigate the effects of conflict on agriculture using the Boko Haram insurgency as a case study. We identify the output, input, infrastructure and human capital effects as direct effects and the loss of talent and other environmental factors as indirect effects. Identified market effects include effects on product and input prices, and increased risk premiums. By combining a nationally representative panel dataset on Nigerian agriculture with armed conflict data, we find that the increased intensity of Boko Haram attacks significantly reduces total output and productivity, but not land use, and reduces the outputs of specific staple crops such as sorghum, cassava, soya and yam. Conflict is also found to reduce the hours of hired labor for men and women, but does not affect the use of family labor. Agricultural wages are, however, significantly affected. Because it reveals if, why and how conflict affects agriculture, this study has important implications for post-crisis recovery and agricultural development.