Effects of CMIP5 Projections on Volume Growth, Carbon Stock and Timber Yield in Managed Scots Pine, Norway Spruce and Silver Birch Stands under Southern and Northern Boreal Conditions

Abstract

We investigated how recent-generation (CMIP5) global climate model projections affect the volume growth, carbon stock, timber yield and its profitability in managed Scots pine, Norway spruce and Silver birch stands on medium fertile upland sites under southern and northern boreal conditions in Finland. Forest ecosystem model simulations were conducted for the current climate and changing climate, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using 10 individual global climate model (GCM) projections. In addition to the baseline thinning, we maintained either 20% higher or lower stocking in thinning over a 90-year period. In the south, the severe climate projections, such as HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 and GFDL-CM3 RCP8.5, as opposed to MPI-ESM-MR RCP4.5, considerably decreased the volume growth, carbon stock and timber yield, as well as its profitability, in Norway spruce stands, but also partially in Scots pine stands, compared to the current climate. Silver birch gained the most from the climate change in the south and Scots pine in the north. The impacts of the thinning regime varied, depending on tree species, site and climate applied. Depending on the severity of the climate change, even opposing adaptive management measures may be needed in different boreal regions.