Abstract
The study explores the factors affecting the sedimentation trends in the surrounding catchment area of the Tarbela Dam for the period 1980–2017, specifically rain and temperature. Furthermore, this study also investigates the seasonal effects of sediment loads coming into the reservoir from 2007 to 2012. The statistical techniques were applied for the estimation of the effects of climate (rainfall and temperature) on the sedimentation and the inflow of Tarbela Dam and its surrounding catchment area. The results revealed that sediment deposition pattern points toward the greater bed elevation at 7–12 range lines that lie near the Main Embankment Dam, also that Barandu River carried more bulk of inflow to the Indus, as compared to Siran River and thus contributed a greater amount of sediments to the reservoir. Summer monsoon season also contributed to the greatest bulk of sediments to the Tarbela Dam and its surrounding catchment area. The regression confirmed that for one degree increase in temperature there will be a 7 Million Acre Feet (MAF) increase; for a 1 mm (mm) increase in rainfall there will be a 1 MAF decrease and for a 1 Cusec increase in the inflow coming into the reservoir, there be a 4 MAF increase in sedimentation of the reservoir. Thus, the contribution of the temperature in sediment generation is found to be greater than rainfall. The study recommended that for the proper functioning of Tarbela Dam, the shift in the climate of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) might be regularly monitored as rising temperatures in UIB would result in greater glacial melt and hence greater sediments to settle down into the reservoirs downstream.
Highlights
Reservoirs around the world are facing the challenges of sedimentation
The objective of this study is to explore the effects of rainfall and temperature on the sedimentation and the inflow of Tarbela Dam and its surrounding catchment area for the period of 1980–2017
Nov to Feb are classified as winter season, March till June is classified as summer and July–Oct as the summer monsoon season
Summary
Reservoirs around the world are facing the challenges of sedimentation. For the year 1986, it was estimated that there is an economic loss of US$ 6 billion each year due to the loss of 1% of the world’s gross reservoir storage [1]. [15] are of the view that the sediments from the catchment area reach Tarbela reservoir where due to insufficient velocity favorable conditions for particle settling are generated, due to which reservoir’s important storage capacity is lost. Snow and glacial melt contribute 90% of the inflow coming into the Tarbela reservoir These glaciers crush the rocks and provide the bulk of the sediments that get settled in the reservoir [18]. The objective of this study is to explore the effects of rainfall and temperature on the sedimentation and the inflow of Tarbela Dam and its surrounding catchment area for the period of 1980–2017. The rate of sedimentation in Tarbela reservoir is dependent upon inflow coming into the reservoir, temperature and rainfall in the catchment area north of Tarbela. Multiple linear regression (MLR) has been used in various other international studies focused on sedimentation and bed load analysis. [21 and 32] applied MLR to prove linear relationship between variables, in this case river discharge and suspended sediment load of River Rio Chama, USA. [22] used MLR in their study for bed load analysis of Malaysian rivers
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