Effects of climate on renewable energy sources and electricity supply in Norway

Abstract

Hydro power inflow, wind power, solar power and electricity demand in Norway are estimated based on meteorological data for the period 1961–2020. The installed capacity of the production technologies and the underlying factors causing electricity demands are kept constant at 2020 levels throughout the analyses. Correlations within and between power sources, and trends in electricity production and consumption are investigated. Wind power production shows a higher correlation with electricity demand than hydro inflow and solar power at daily and monthly time scales. For wind and solar, correlations between power plants decrease distinctly with distance, whereas for hydro inflow the correlation dependence on distance is less clear. Hydro power inflow shows a statistically significant (p < 0.05) increasing trend during the time period studied, and the relative increase is largest during the winter season. Wind and solar power production are only marginally affected by climate differences. Electricity consumption decreases somewhat during the 60-year period, due to increasing average temperatures. The combined effect is a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in long term estimated electricity surplus. Although a surplus of electricity exists at the mean annual level, additional available electricity in the form of reservoir storage or import is needed to maintain security of supply.