Effects of climate change on wind energy production in Iran

Abstract

This study explores the effect of future climate change on wind energy conversion in Iran, based on data from existing wind farms. In an effort to estimate and understand the effects of climate change on the potential of wind energy production, the southwestern and western regions of Iran have been studied. In this region, the three provinces of Ilam, Kermanshah and Khuzestan have been studied in detail, along with their 12 weather stations. To simulate future temperatures, the HADCAM3 general circulation model and A1b and A2 scenarios were used. The method of artificial neural network (ANN) was deployed to predict the measures of relative humidity. To compare the rate of energy production for the two periods of present and future conditions, two time scales, 1987–2009 and 2046–2065, were taken into account. The main results demonstrate that there is an agreement between the two future climate scenarios, A1b and A2. In both simulations, Dehloran City showed the highest moist air density and, consequently, the highest wind energy production. In the other cities, a decrease in wind energy production was observed. Finally, if the mean working life of a wind farm is assumed to be between 20 and 30 years, the more promising regions in which to implement and/or renovate wind farms, in Iran, can be determined, according to the expected future wind energy production. The research further indicates an increase in temperature in most of the stations in the months studied and a decrease in the capacity of wind energy production in most stations. Therefore, a lack of proper management of supply and a demand of energy for cooling and ventilation of settlements in the studied regions can lead to challenges in providing the society with healthy climatic conditions in that area. Thus, a proper alternative, such as solar energy, to supply the region with clean energy is proposed.