Effects of climate change on wheat production potential in the European Community

Abstract

Wheat grain production in the main arable areas of the EC was calculated with a simulation model, WOFOST, using historical weather data and average soil characteristics. The sensitivity of the model to individual weather variables was determined. Subsequent analyses were made using climate change scenarios with and without the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2. The impact of crop management (irrigation and cultivar type) in a changed climate was also assessed.Sensitivity analyses show that water-limited grain production of winter wheat increased with increasing vapour pressure, rainfall and atmospheric CO2 concentration and decreased with increasing windspeed, temperature (except for southern EC) and solar radiation. The various climate change scenarios that were used yielded considerably different changes in production, both for each location and for the EC as a whole. For example, the average water-limited grain production in the EC may remain constant or may decrease by about 1 000 kg ha1 depending on scenario. If the direct effect of increasing CO2 is also taken into account, the average water-limited grain production in the EC increased by about 1 000 kg ha-'or more. Management analyses showed that for both the present and scenario generated climates the largest water-limited grain production will be attained by cultivars with an early start of grain filling, that average irrigation requirements to attain potential grain production will increase with climate change in northern EC and decrease in southern EC, and that with both increasing CO2 and climate change irrigation requirements in northern EC remain unchanged and decrease further in southern EC.