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Abstract
Tularaemia is a vector-borne infectious disease. A large majority of cases transmitted to humans by blood-feeding arthropods occur during the summer season and is linked to increased temperatures. Therefore, the effect of climate change is likely to have an effect on tularaemia transmission patterns in highly endemic areas of Sweden. In this report, we use simulated climate change scenario data and empirical data of temperatures critical to tularaemia transmission to forecast tularaemia outbreak activity. The five high-endemic counties: Dalarna, Gävleborg, Norrbotten, Värmland and Örebro represent only 14.6% of the total population of Sweden, but have recorded 40.1–81.1% of the number of annual human tularaemia in Sweden from 1997 until 2008. We project here earlier starts and a later termination of future tularaemia outbreaks for the time period 2010–2100. For five localised outbreak areas; Gagnef (Dalarna), Ljusdal (Gävleborg), Harads (Norrbotten), Karlstad (Värmland) and Örebro municipality (Örebro), the climate scenario suggests an approximately 2°C increase in monthly average summer temperatures leading to increases in outbreak durations ranging from 3.5 weeks (Harads) to 6.6 weeks (Karlstad) between 2010 and 2100. In contrast, an analysis of precipitation scenarios indicates fairly stable projected levels of precipitation during the summer months. Thus, there should not be an increased abundance of late summer mosquitoes that are believed to be main vectors for transmission to humans in these areas. In conclusion, the results indicate that the future climate changes will lead to an increased burden of tularaemia in high-endemic areas of Sweden during the coming decades.
Highlights
The effect of climate change is likely to have an effect on tularaemia transmission patterns in highly endemic areas of Sweden
In 2003, for example, 700 individuals were diagnosed with tularaemia and half of them were affected in areas south of the river Dalälven cutting across central Sweden from the mountains in the west to its draining areas in the Botnian Sea in the east [2]
An analysis of summer temperatures was performed under the assumption that late summer epidemics of tularaemia in Sweden require temperatures critical for replication of the infectious agent and dispersal by bloodfeeding arthropods
Summary
The effect of climate change is likely to have an effect on tularaemia transmission patterns in highly endemic areas of Sweden. For five localised outbreak areas; Gagnef (Dalarna), Ljusdal (Gävleborg), Harads (Norrbotten), Karlstad (Värmland) and Örebro municipality (Örebro), the climate scenario suggests an approximately 28C increase in monthly average summer temperatures leading to increases in outbreak durations ranging from 3.5 weeks (Harads) to 6.6 weeks (Karlstad) between 2010 and 2100. There should not be an increased abundance of late summer mosquitoes that are believed to be main vectors for transmission to humans in these areas. The results indicate that the future climate changes will lead to an increased burden of tularaemia in high-endemic areas of Sweden during the coming decades. Its presence in water and sediments has been proven through inoculation of samples into laboratory animals, from which culturable bacteria subsequently have been isolated
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