Abstract
The crops that we grow for food need specific climatic conditions to show better performance in view of economic yield. A changing climate could have both beneficial and harmful effects on crops. Keeping the above view in mind, this study is undertaken to investigate the impacts of climate change (viz. changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine) on the yield and cropping area of four major food crops (viz. Aus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice and wheat) in Bangladesh. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard error (HAC) and feasible generalized least square (FGLS) methods were used to determine the climate-crop interrelations using national level time series data for the period of 1972–2010. Findings revealed that the effects of all the climate variables have had significant contributions to the yield and cropping area of major food crops with distinct variation among them. Maximum temperature statistically significantly affected all the food crops’ yield except Aus rice. Maximum temperature also insignificantly affected cropping area of all the crops. Minimum temperature insignificantly affected Aman rice but benefited other three crops’ yield and cropping area. Rainfall significantly benefitted cropping area of Aus rice, but significantly affected both yield and cropping area of Aman rice. Humidity statistically positively contributed to the yield of Aus and Aman rice but, statistically, negatively influenced the cropping area of Aus rice. Sunshine statistically significantly benefitted only Boro rice yield. Overall, maximum temperature adversely affected yield and cropping area of all the major food crops and rainfall severely affected Aman rice only. Concerning the issue of climate change and ensuring food security, the respective authorities thus should give considerable attention to the generation, development and extension of drought (all major food crops) and flood (particularly Aman rice) tolerant varieties.
Highlights
The effects of climate change on crop production are international concerns, but they are significant for the sustainable agricultural development of Bangladesh [1]
The adjusted R2 value expressed that 84% variability in yield and 26% variability in cropping area of Aman rice is explained by the climatic factors, which strongly justified the climatic influence on this crop
The adjusted R2 value showed that 14% variation of yield and 10% variation of cropping area of wheat are explained by climate change and vulnerabilities in Bangladesh
Summary
The effects of climate change on crop production are international concerns, but they are significant for the sustainable agricultural development of Bangladesh [1]. This is a country of variant climatic conditions year-round due to its geographic position and physiographic status. Agriculture is always susceptible to unfavorable weather conditions and climate events. In spite of technological progress (such as improved crop varieties and irrigation potentialities), weather and climate are still key determinants for agricultural productivity and sustainability. Any internal and external threat (social, political, natural and environmental) to agriculture directly affects food grain production as well as food security of the country [4]. In spite of the recent strides regarding gaining sustainable development, Bangladesh’s ability to restore its development is experienced with significant challenges and confounded by climate change [5]
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