Effects of climate change on the distribution of felids: mapping biogeographic patterns and establishing conservation priorities

Abstract

Climate changes may threaten the survival of felids by driving range shifts, altering the biogeographical characteristics of their existing range, and decreasing range overlap with protected areas. In this study, we investigate these threats and delineate priority areas for conservation by comparing current (1950–1999) with future (2080–2100) distribution predicted by climatic niche modelling. Distribution changes encompass centroid displacement of up to 1067 km, range contractions of up to 460 km2, and fragmentation into up to 29 populations. Some felids may expand their distribution by up to 1016 km2, which could facilitate the reconnection of isolated populations if appropriate management plans are implemented. The protected area network overlaps with just 5.85% of the current distribution of felids and would decline to 3.69% in the future scenario, necessitating an expansion of protected areas in areas of felids distribution. However, countries that are subject to the greatest landcover changes worldwide (e.g. Brazil, China, and India) are also home to the priority areas to felids conservation, underscoring the urgency and potential challenges of safeguarding felids.