Effects of climate change on the distribution of crop wild relatives in the Netherlands in relation to conservation status and ecotope variation

Abstract

Crop wild relatives (CWR) are wild plant taxa that are genetically related to a cultivated species and are considered rich sources of useful traits for crop improvement. CWR are generally underrepresented in genebanks, while their survival in nature is not guaranteed. Inventories and risk analyses are needed to prioritize CWR for conservation in order to ensure that they remain available for utilization. Here the effects of climate change on the distribution of 214 CWR in the Netherlands are predicted by ecological niche modelling and related to data on IUCN conservation status and variation in key ecological habitat factors. It is shown that climate change is expected to affect red list species as well as species that currently are of least concern. Particularly worrisome is the finding that already critically endangered CWR show the largest expected loss of distribution area. In general, reduced distribution areas show a geographical shift to more northern locations in the Netherlands. No clear relationship is found between changes in distribution and the habitat characteristics vegetation structure, nutrient level, moisture condition, salinity and acidity. A moderate positive correlation is observed between ecological amplitude and tolerance level to climatic change. Study results are used in developing strategies to ensure that Dutch CWR remain available for utilization.