Effects of Climate Change on the Carbon Sequestration Potential of Forest Vegetation in Yunnan Province, Southwest China

Ruiwu Zhou,Qinghai Song,Yanqiang Jin,Yiping Zhang,Mingchun Peng

doi:10.3390/f13020306

Abstract

Ongoing climate changes reportedly affect the potential distribution and carbon sequestration potential (CSP) of forest vegetation. The combined effects of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation on these features of forest vegetation are poorly understood. In this study, classification and regression tree (CART) models were used to predict the potential distribution and estimate the CSP of forest vegetation in Yunnan Province, Southwest China, under different simulation scenarios. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMW) was the main factor limiting the suitable habitat of all forest vegetation types except for warm–temperate coniferous (WTC) forests. When the temperature increased by 1 °C and the precipitation decreased by 20%, the potential distribution area of the 7 forest vegetation types decreased by 12.41% overall. The potential distribution of WTC forests was the least sensitive to temperature increases and precipitation decreases. The CSP of vegetation was higher (1187.69 TgC) under the constant temperature and 10% precipitation decrease scenario than the CSP of vegetation under the 2 °C temperature increase and constant precipitation scenario (647.24 TgC). Specifically, the highest CSP (1337.88 TgC) was observed under the 1 °C temperature increase and 10% precipitation decrease scenario, and the lowest (617.91 TgC) occurred under the constant temperature and 20% precipitation decrease scenario. In summary, the forest vegetation in Yunnan Province has a high CSP under climate change, and the combined effect of increased temperature and decreased precipitation can increase the CSP of forest vegetation in Yunnan Province. This finding is important for improving scientific decision making and policy planning.

Highlights

Temperature increases and precipitation decreases significantly influence the structure, functions, dynamics, and distribution of forest vegetation, and these changes in turn influence the carbon sequestration potential (CSP) of forest vegetation [1,2,3,4]
The temperate–cool coniferous (TCC) and cold–temperate coniferous (CTC) types have small suitable habitat areas because they are limited by lower TMW values; the potential distribution area decreases as temperature increases [23]
Classification and regression tree (CART) models are capable of modeling suitable habitats and the CSP of forest vegetation under changing climatic conditions

Summary

Introduction

Temperature increases and precipitation decreases significantly influence the structure, functions, dynamics, and distribution of forest vegetation, and these changes in turn influence the carbon sequestration potential (CSP) of forest vegetation [1,2,3,4]. A previous study proved that the CART model is more accurate in explaining the relationships between climatic factors and forest vegetation distribution in Yunnan Province than the generalized linear model and generalized additive model [23]. In these studies, precipitation uncertainty and stand age can be ignored. The effects of temperature increase on the CSP of forest vegetation in Yunnan Province were explored [23], but we did not consider the combined effects of different factors (e.g., temperature and precipitation). The factors influencing the CSP of forest vegetation are complex, such as stand age, carbon dioxide, and human activities, etc., all affect the CSP of forest vegetation, this study used a model to explore the change of CSP caused by the change of forest vegetation area, assuming that other factors do not change

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