Effects of Climate Change on Subtropical Forests of South America

Abstract

Premontane forest in northern Argentina and southern Bolivia represents a conservation priority due to its biological values, role of connectivity among different forest types, and precious timber resources. Premontane forest distribution has fluctuated in correspondence to habitat use and changes in climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to determine current and future distributions of premontane forest and of six distinctive tree species in response to climate change, and to relate distribution changes to the current system of protected areas. Using the Maxent program, we developed species distribution models at the community and species levels. We used future climate scenarios available at WorldClim, in its original version and calibrated with local data. Future models determined a retraction of premontane forest of about 40% and a general tendency of this environment to migrate toward higher altitudes. Future distribution of individual species showed a similar response although concentrated at some particular areas, suggesting a shift in tree species composition of premontane forest in the future. The Yungas Biosphere Reserve represents a stable protection area for premontane forest.