Abstract
The various elements that are affecting the Earth’s climate have brought climate change to the top of the priority list amongst scientists and policy-makers. Expected changes to local climatic conditions impact directly on the surrounding environment and potentially lead to changes in the degradation processes of building materials, affecting the durability and service life of infrastructures. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of future climate projections on concrete structures in Malta, in particular on carbonation-induced corrosion resulting from increasing temperatures and CO2 concentrations. Thirteen reinforced concrete structures in Malta were chosen for a retrospective analysis in order to validate two carbonation depth prediction models. The validated prediction models were subsequently used to evaluate the varying climate change scenarios in order to determine the effects on concrete carbonation depth for several concrete grades. The age of the structures used for the retrospective analysis ranged from 10 to 60 years. The field data verified the validity of both prediction models for structures with carbonation depths less than 50mm. Although both models proved valid for the retrospective analysis, a difference was noted between the models with regards to the predicted carbonation depth in relation to different climatic scenarios. An increase in carbonation depth of up to 40% is being predicted, by 2070, when considering the worst case climatic scenario. The findings prove that climate change plays a major role on the carbonation depth of concrete, which in turn reduces the service life of concrete structures.
Highlights
Reinforced concrete forms an essential part of our world’s built environment and its durability issues have been widely researched
The coefficient of variation for compressive strength and carbonation depth of the field results that were used for the retrospective analysis were found to be 0.15 and 0.38 respectively, which resulted in being compliant with other values used in published literatures [30,31]
Despite minor discrepancies between the predicted and the actual carbonation depths were present, both models gave realistic predictions and both carbonation models were used for the prediction of carbonation depths of buildings in future years under varying conditions of climate change
Summary
Reinforced concrete forms an essential part of our world’s built environment and its durability issues have been widely researched. Reactions between atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and the hydrated phases of concrete lead to a decrease in the concrete potential hydrogen (pH) level, which in turn causes de-passivation of the embedded rebar and results in corrosion. This phenomenon is referred to as carbonation-induced corrosion of concrete [1,2]. Variations in concrete mixes and exposure to different environments result in different carbonation rates [3].
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