Effects of Climate Change on Rice Production and Strategies for Adaptation in Southern China

Abstract

The CERES-rice (Oryza sativa L.) model was calibrated and validated for nine sites in southern China to examine its suitability to model rice production in this area, using agronomic data from more than three successive years. After determining the genetic coefficients for the cultivars, the CERES-rice model was run a second time for the same locations for a time period of 20 to 30 yr. The model used local climate data (1958--1986) and doubled-CO{sub 2} climate change scenarios generated from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Geophysical Fluid dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) global climate models (GCMs), with and without supplemental irrigation(to model paddy and upland rice, respectively). The study estimated the potential impacts of climate change on rice production by comparing the base runs with the runs under the three doubled-CO{sub 2} GCM scenarios and it considered the physiological effects of CO{sub 2} on rice growth in each GCM scenario. Finally, the study examined several strategies for adapting to climate change.