Effects of Climate Change on Hydropower Generation in China Based on a WEAP Model

Abstract

Changes in climate patterns not only affect precipitation and precipitation patterns, but also cause the spatiotemporal redistribution of precipitation and runoff, affecting hydrogeneration in turn. Based on the coupling relationship between the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate change model and surface runoff in China, a database of China’s major hydropower stations was constructed in this study and the Water Evaluation and Planning model was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation in China by region and basin under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. During the forecast period, national power generation compared with base year first decreased in the 2030s and then increased in the 2070s, while a risk of excessive hydropower generation was concentrated in the southwestern provinces, Yangtze River Basin, and giant hydropower stations. During the 2030s, hydropower generation may face a risk of electricity generation decrease which will limit its contribution to the Nationally Determined Contribution target.