Effects of climate change and species distribution modeling of Loxosceles (Araneae: Sicariidae) from Central Mexico

Abstract

With 40 of the 149 described species, Mexico harbors the highest diversity of the spider genus Loxosceles. However,knowledge about these spiders’ distribution patterns in a climate change (CC) context is poorly known. In this study,the distributions of 4 species from Central Mexico, Loxosceles malintzi, L. misteca, L. tenochtitlan and L. zapoteca, were estimated and evaluated based on species distribution modeling (SDM) and the possible effects of CC. Two future scenarios were simulated (years 2050 and 2080) to show possible increases or reductions in species distributions. The most important variables that influence the distribution of the species were: isothermality, seasonality of temperature, and precipitation. In the CC scenarios, some species showed a possible increase, specifically, Loxosceles malintzi with an increase in its distribution of 79% by 2050 and 66% by 2080, whereas L. misteca was projected to increase its distribution by 28% for 2050 and 38% for 2080. However, a decrease in the distribution of L. tenochtitlan by 51% for 2050 and 38% for 2080 was projected, as well as a 45% decrease by 2050 and a 40% decrease by 2080 for L. zapoteca.