Effects of climate change and ozone on vegetation phenology on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

The vegetation phenology, encompassing the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season on the Tibetan Plateau, has been significantly impacted by global climate change. Furthermore, ozone (O3) has gradually become the main pollutant in this region, substantially influencing carbon cycle and ecosystems on Earth. While ongoing studies have focused mainly on the implications of climate parameters, including temperature, precipitation, and radiation, the effects of O3 on the SOS and EOS remain unclear. Here, we compared the responses and sensitivities of the SOS and EOS to both climatic factors and O3 in this region. With the use of partial correlation analysis, we found that increased precipitation was the most important factor influencing the SOS and caused earlier occurrence (4.8 % vs. 21.9 %) for most plant functional types. In comparison, temperature only dominated in shrublands. In particular, we found that the EOS responded comparably to climatic factors with similar proportions between advancing and delaying patterns. However, higher O3 levels consistently advanced the EOS for almost all plant functional types and was the main factor controlling EOS variations based on the sensitivity analysis. Our results emphasized that O3 pollution should be considered for obtaining better phenological forecasts and determining the impacts of the environment and atmospheric composition on carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems.