Abstract
Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model) and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods) are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.
Highlights
The water cycle is subjected to the dual influences of both climate change and human activities [1]
Water-related human activities including land use and cover change and water diversion for irrigation and industrial and domestic water use are considered to be responsible for the runoff decline
An integrated quantitative method is successfully applied in the Luan River basin using the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches
Summary
The water cycle is subjected to the dual influences of both climate change and human activities [1]. Especially the change of rainfall and temperature, will largely determine the future runoff of a basin [2] Human activities such as land use and cover change (LUCC) [3] and water resources projects [4] will affect the water resources. Li et al [6] found that the land use change effects contributed with about 31∼40% to runoff decline when using both hydrological models and sensitivitybased approaches in three catchments in southeast Australia These studies together show that the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff vary between different basins, and regional analysis of the local-scale effects needs to be considered, for the basins with intensive human activities where more aspects related to hydrological cycle should be considered
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