Abstract
The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.
Highlights
Human malaria is a group of four infections caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Plasmodium and transmitted by anopheline mosquitoes
We have demonstrated the patterns of spatial variability and long-term dynamics of the climatic favorability to malaria in Moscow megacity and its surroundings
Due to the climate warming, the climate of the region has become significantly more conducive to a new resurgence of malaria. This mandates the continuation of antimalaria preventive activities, despite the interruption of malaria transmission that had been achieved
Summary
Human malaria is a group of four infections caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Plasmodium and transmitted by anopheline mosquitoes. Practically all cases of malaria are caused by either P. falciparum or P. vivax. The former is the predominant of the two (ca 90%). The share of infections caused by human parasites P. malariae and P. ovale is negligible. Humans occasionally become infected with Plasmodium species that normally infect animals, such as P. knowlesi. There are no reports of human–mosquito–human transmission of such zoonotic species of malaria [1]. Particular parasite species have their specific strategies for survival [2], as well as their own features of pathology, epidemiology, public health significance, and amenability to control
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