Effects of climate change and CO2 increase on potential agricultural production in Southern Québec, Canada

Abstract

We assessed the effect of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, as well as the direct fertilization effect of CO2, on crop yields in Quebec, Canada. Our methodology coupled the transient diagnostics of 2 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (CGCM1 and HadCM3) to the DSSAT 3.5 crop simulation system to simulate current (1961–1990) and future (2040–2069) crop yields for spring wheat, maize, soybean and potato grown in 8 agricultural regions of Quebec. For the future (2040–2069), we predict significant yield increases for soybean, lesser increases for wheat, no significant change for maize, and yield decreases for potato. These yields, especially for soybean, are further increased when incorporating the CO2 fertilization effect, but vary according to the crop, climate scenario and agricultural region. Similar trends have been found in comparable agricultural regions in the Northeastern USA and in Southern Finland. These results are useful for designing appropriate crop and farm management adaptation strategies in response to future climate change.