Effects of climate and anthropogenic pressures on chemical warfare agent transfer in the Baltic Sea food web

Abstract

The Baltic Sea is a severely disturbed marine ecosystem previously used as a dumping ground for chemical warfare agents (CWA), which are now known to enter its food web. We have performed a modelling exercise using a calibrated and validated Central Baltic Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model to recreate the potential environmental pathways of the infamous Clark I (diphenylchlorarsine). Observations from modelling timestamps covering recent times correspond with in situ detections in sediments and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Under applied modelling conditions and scenarios, there is an active transfer of Clark I from sediments through the Baltic Sea food-web. According to our results, Clark I bioaccumulates within the Baltic Sea food web exclusively throughout the detritus-based food chain. The EwE model for the Central Baltic Sea also allows the simulation of changes in the food web under multiple anthropogenic stressors and management efforts, including recommendations from the Helsinki Commission Baltic Sea Action Plan (HELCOM BSAP). Among all investigated scentarios and factors, the commercial fishing is the most impactful on Clark I accumulation rate and contamination transfer within the Baltic Sea food web. The study indicates the need to extend the existing monitoring approach by adding additional species representing a broader range of ecological niches and tiers within the food chains. From the environmental perspective, the remediation of Chemical Weapons by removal should be considered as part of the integrated management of the Baltic Sea.