Effects of Chinese “double carbon strategy” on soil polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons pollution

Abstract

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and carbon dioxide primarily originate from the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. The implementation of the Chinese “double carbon strategy” is expected to impact the distribution of PAH emissions, consequently influencing the spatial distribution trend of PAHs in surface soil. Therefore, it is crucial to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese “double carbon strategy” on soil PAH pollution for the purpose of “the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions”. This study utilized 15,088 individual PAH concentration data from 943 soil samples collected between 2003 and 2020 in China, in conjunction with PAH emissions at a 10 km resolution, for meta-analysis. The calculated PAH emissions in this study are in line with the global PAH emission inventory (PKU-PAH-2007), with a relative standard deviation at the provincial level of less than 25 %. Subsequently, a novel method was developed using emission density and Kow of PAHs to predict PAH concentrations in surface soil based on a least-squares regression model. Compared to other environmental models, the method established in this study significantly reduced the percent sample deviation to less than 70 %. Furthermore, energy consumption data for China were simulated based on the implementation plan of the “double carbon strategy” to project PAH emissions and soil PAH levels for the years 2030 and 2060. The predicted PAH emissions in China were estimated to decrease to 41,300 t in 2030 and 10,406.5 t in 2060 from 78,815 t in 2020. Moreover, the heavily contaminated areas of soil PAHs (i.e., total PAH concentrations in soil exceeding 1000 μg kg−1) were projected to decrease by 45 % and 82 % in 2030 and 2060, respectively, compared to levels in 2020. These findings suggest that the implementation of the “double carbon strategy” can fundamentally reduce the pollution of PAHs in surface soil of China.