Effects of Changing Climate Extremes on Maize Grain Yield in Northeast China

Abstract

The increased frequency of climate extremes associated with ongoing climate change has the potential for significant impacts on maize grain yield in maize-producing regions worldwide. In this study, we used a modeling approach to investigate the effects of different types of climatic extremes on maize grain yield in Northeast China. We combined annual mean air temperature and accumulated precipitation data and divided the climate years into 9 categories, using the 10th and 90th percentiles as extreme thresholds. The climate data were represented by 1 normal climate type, 4 individual climate extremes, and 4 combined climate extremes. Changes in the frequencies of climate extremes and their impacts on maize grain yields were analyzed for two 30-year periods (period I: 1960–1989; period II: 1990–2019) using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM-Maize). Compared with period I, the occurrences of the normal climate and all 3 cold-related climate extremes (i.e., cold-normal, cold-humid, and cold-dry) decreased during period II, while occurrences of the other climate extremes increased. Moreover, according to the APSIM-Maize model, the estimated yield in the years with a normal climate decreased by 4.01%; the 3 cold-related climate extremes increased yields by 26.56%, 12.10%, and 6.68%, respectively; the 2 warm-related climate extremes (warm-normal and warm-dry) and normal-humid years decreased estimated yields by 6.39%, 24.12%, and 5.10%, respectively. The increase in the occurrence of warm-humid years increased the estimated yield by 11.69%. This work confirms the adverse effects of warmer temperatures in the absence of excess rainfall on grain yield and highlights the importance of extremely dry or wet conditions under normal temperature conditions.