Effects of AST-120 on mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease modeled by artificial intelligence or traditional statistical analysis

Abstract

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) imposes a substantial burden, and patient prognosis remains grim. The impact of AST-120 (AST-120) on the survival of CKD patients lacks a consensus. This study aims to investigate the effects of AST-120 usage on the survival of CKD patients and explore the utility of artificial intelligence models for decision-making. We conducted a retrospective analysis of CKD patients receiving care in the pre-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) program at Taichung Veterans General Hospital from 2000 to 2019. We employed Cox regression models to evaluate the relationship between AST-120 use and patient survival, both before and after propensity score matching. Subsequently, we employed Deep Neural Network (DNN) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models to assess their performance in predicting AST-120's impact on patient survival. Among the 2584 patients in our cohort, 2199 did not use AST-120, while 385 patients received AST-120. AST-120 users exhibited significantly lower mortality rates compared to non-AST-120 users (13.51% vs. 37.88%, p < 0.0001) and a reduced prevalence of ESRD (44.16% vs. 53.17%, p = 0.0005). Propensity score matching at 1:1 and 1:2 revealed no significant differences, except for dialysis and all-cause mortality, where AST-120 users exhibited significantly lower all-cause mortality (p < 0.0001), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.395 (95% CI = 0.295–0.522). This difference remained statistically significant even after propensity matching. In terms of model performance, the XGBoost model demonstrated the highest accuracy (0.72), specificity (0.90), and positive predictive value (0.48), while the logistic regression model showed the highest sensitivity (0.63) and negative predictive value (0.84). The area under the curve (AUC) values for logistic regression, DNN, and XGBoost were 0.73, 0.73, and 0.69, respectively, indicating similar predictive capabilities for mortality. In this cohort of CKD patients, the use of AST-120 is significantly associated with reduced mortality. However, the performance of artificial intelligence models in predicting the impact of AST-120 is not superior to statistical analysis using the current architecture and algorithm.