Effects of anthropogenic precursor emissions and meteorological conditions on PM2.5 concentrations over the “2+26” cities of northern China

Abstract

Elucidating the characteristics and influencing mechanisms of PM2.5 concentrations is the premise and key to the precise prevention and control of air pollution. However, the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of PM2.5 concentrations and its driving mechanism are complex and need to be further analyzed. We analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of PM2.5 concentrations in the “2 + 26” cities from 2015 to 2021, and quantified the influence of meteorological factors and anthropogenic emissions and their interactions on PM2.5 concentrations based on geographic detector model. We find the inter-annual and inter-season PM2.5 concentrations show downward trend from 2015 to 2021, and the inter-month PM2.5 concentrations present a U-shaped distribution. The PM2.5 concentrations in the “2 + 26” cities manifest a spatial distribution pattern of high in the south and low in the north, and high in the middle and low in the surroundings. Meteorological conditions have stronger effects on PM2.5 concentrations than anthropogenic emissions, and planetary boundary layer height and temperature are the two main driving factors at the annual scale. On the seasonal scale, sunshine duration is the dominant factor of PM2.5 concentrations in summer and autumn, and planetary boundary layer height is the dominant factor of PM2.5 concentrations in winter. The effect of anthropogenic emissions on PM2.5 concentration is higher in winter and spring than in summer and autumn, and ammonia and ozone have stronger effects on PM2.5 concentrations than other anthropogenic emissions. Interactions between the factors significantly enhance the PM2.5 concentrations. The interactions between planetary boundary layer height and other impacting factors play dominant roles on PM2.5 concentrations at annual scale and in winter. Our results not only provide crucial information for further developing air quality policies of the “2 + 26” cities, but also bear out several important implications for clean air policies in China and other regions of the world.