Abstract
Despite the significant economic cost of falls and injuries to individuals and communities, little is known about the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of fall-related injuries (FRIs). Therefore, a time-series study was conducted to explore the effects of meteorological factors on FRIs in Ma'anshan City, East China. Injury data from 2011 to 2017 were collected from the National Injury Monitoring Station in Ma'anshan City. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used in this study to evaluate the correlation between ambient temperature and fall injuries. The results showed a significant exposure-response relationship between temperature and FRIs in Ma'anshan City. The high temperatures increased the risk of FRIs (RR = 1.110; 95% CI, 1.005-1.225; lag 0). The lag effect appeared at lag 10 (RR = 1.032; 95% CI, 1.003-1.063), and then gradually remained stable after lag 25 (RR = 1.077; 95% CI, 1.045-1.110). The effect of ambient temperature varied with age and gender. The lag effect of high temperature appeared in the male group after lag 15 (RR = 1.042; 95% CI, 1.006-1.079). In contrast, the effect of the female group appeared for the first time at lag 0 (RR = 1.187; 95% CI, 1.042-1.352). And the ≥ 60 years subgroup seemed to be more sensitive in low temperature (RR = 1.017; 95% CI, 1.004-1.031; lag 0; RR = 1.003; 95% CI, 1.000-1.007; lag 25). The cumulative result is similar to the single-day effect. From the results, this study would help the establishment of fall-related injury prediction and provide evidence for the formulation and implementation of preventive strategies and measures in the future.
Highlights
The 2017 global burden of disease (GBD) study showed that disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) of fall-related injuries (FRIs) were the first among all unintentional injuries in the world (GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, 2018)
Turner's study (2011) investigated whether there was an association between fall-related fracture hospitalizations and ambient temperature at the daily level, and after considering autocorrelation and seasonal trends, they found an increased incidence of hip fractures in people over 75 years of age when the temperature decreased
Some studies have found that the incidence of fall-related injury among children increased during the high temperature season (Morrison et al, 1999; Parslow et al, 2005)
Summary
The 2017 global burden of disease (GBD) study showed that disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) of fall-related injuries (FRIs) were the first among all unintentional injuries in the world (GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, 2018). While falls and injuries cause serious health consequences, they increase the burden on the emergency department of the hospital (Murray et al, 2011) and the potential long-term sequelae (Stevens et al, 2007). A study by Verma et al found that middle-aged and young adults living in the community accounted for 35.3% and 32.3% of all fall-related injuries in the population (Verma et al, 2016). Turner et al investigated people over the age of 70 and found that lower mean temperatures were significantly associated with higher fall-related hip fracture hospitalizations (Turner et al, 2011). Gevitz et al study showed that rainfall was associated with an increase in the number of emergency department visits for fall-related fractures, but the temperature effect results were not statistically significant (Gevitz et al, 2017). The above studies have shown that the actual effect of meteorological factors on fall related injuries has not been fully revealed and the results are inconsistent across populations
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