Effects of agricultural management and of climate change on N2O emissions in an area of the Brazilian Cerrado: Measurements and simulations using the STICS soil-crop model

Abstract

Soil-plant simulation models have been ever more used as predictive tools to evaluate productivity and environmental impacts of agriculture practices. The aims of this work were to evaluate the STICS model’s capacity of simulate the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) under different management systems. And, to predict, by applying the calibrated and validated STICS model, the N2O emissions, under different management systems, in the edaphoclimatic conditions of the Brazilian Cerrado. The study was conducted in a long-term experiment at Embrapa Cerrados, located in Planaltina/DF, Brazil. The experiment started in 1995. The following land use systems were evaluated: CT - conventional tillage with disc harrow, and biannual grass/legume rotation; NT1 - No-tillage, with biannual crop rotation – soybean/sorghum; NT2 - No-tillage, with biannual crop rotation – maize/pigeon pea.Closed static chambers and gas sample analysis by gas chromatography were used to measure N2O fluxes. The model was calibrated with the data measured in the CT and NT1 treatments. The attributes used in the calibration were: growth, development and yield of crops and N2O fluxes. To test the model, data from the NT2 treatment was used. Data for all treatments were collected at the same time. After calibration and validation, the STICS model was used to predict the effects of soil management systems, conventional (CT) and no-tillage (NT) on greenhouse gas emissions and on grain and biomass crops production. The simulation was made for the period from 2021 to 2070. The STICS model performed well at simulation of the following parameters: N2O emissions, soil water dynamics, soil temperature; and leaf area, aerial biomass and grain yield of soybean and maize. The performance of the model was good for the conventional soil management system as well as in the no-tillage system. Based on the predicted increase in temperature for the period 2021–2070, we can conclude from the data generated through the STICS model that there is strong evidence that grain yield and total aerial biomass of plants will decrease. The data show that there is a rising tendency in N2O emissions over the simulated period. This is expected to occur for the two soil management systems studied (NT and CT). We believe this increase in emissions along the years is related to temperature increase and to the reduction of crop cycle.