Effects of a warming trend on cool climate viticulture in Michigan, USA.

Steven R Schultze,Lifeng Luo,Paolo Sabbatini

doi:10.1186/s40064-016-2777-1

Steven R Schultze, Lifeng Luo + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-016-2777-1

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Abstract

Historically, Michigan’s climate had mainly three challenges for grape production: growing season temperatures were too low, the growing season was too short and there was too much rain near harvest. However, climate change in the past decades has led to a vastly different landscape that is evolving to meet the new climate. Recently, there has been a significant move from Vitis labrusca (North American) grape plantings to Vitis vinifera (wine grapes) as a consequence of Michigan’s shifting climate. The goal of this study was to analyze the historical shift in climate and its potential future impact on the grape industry. We obtained data climate model projection data from two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. First, a multi-linear regression model was built to predict future grape yields (t/ac) using data from the climate model projections. Second, trends in the severity of the three challenges (temperature, season length, precipitation timing) were analyzed. In both GHG scenarios grape yields are seen to improve, but to different extents. The improvement is likely a response to warmer season temperatures canceling out losses to early season frost. Model projections recommend that Michigan’s future climate will be more accommodating for all varieties of grapes. This suggests that grape production will continue to grow, but the landscape will continue to evolve with more emphasis on varieties that are more climatically sensitive to cold temperatures. Climate change has greatly affected Michigan’s viticultural landscape, and will continue to do so in the coming decades.

Highlights

From a climate perspective, Michigan is considered a “cool-cold” climate viticulture region of the world: cool is referred to the summer and cold is referred to the winter temperature (Gladstones 1992; Zabadal and Andresen 1997)
This study focuses on climate projection data for both the southwest and northwest of Michigan
The second issue is that southwest Michigan’s average growing season temperature (GST) should be seen as too warm to be classified as a “cool climate”, at least from the perspective of growing season mean temperature

Summary

Introduction

Michigan is considered a “cool-cold” climate viticulture region of the world: cool is referred to the summer and cold is referred to the winter temperature (Gladstones 1992; Zabadal and Andresen 1997). This classification is due to a combination of climate challenges that the grape growing industry has historically encountered. Michigan’s average GST in the 1950s and 1960s was 14.1 °C in the northwest corner of the lower peninsula and 16.5 °C in the southwest corner of the State Both areas experienced summers with appreciable variability on a yearly basis, with a 0.19 and 0.21 °C standard deviation, respectively, in temperature during the 20-year period.

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