Abstract
We examine the effect of the sending-off of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.
Highlights
A red card in association football results in the sending-off of a player
This would be in line with social impact theory according to which an increase in group size decreases the perceived pressure by members to put in effort
Before analyzing the effect of a red card on the goal-scoring rate, we present a preliminary analysis of the effect of a red card on the outcome of a match
Summary
A red card in association football results in the sending-off of a player. A player receives a red card after committing either a serious foul or after misconduct. Using the estimated results, they conclude that a red card occurring early in the match increases the odds of winning substantially, whereas the probability of victory for the sanctioned team decreases even more. They find that around the 70th minute of a match, it becomes optimal for the defending team to commit a red card type of foul to an opposing player with a clear way to the goal. Using player-match data from the 2001–2013 UEFA Champions League seasons, they find that players officiated by a referee from the same country have a 10% increase in beneficial foul calls This effect is even stronger for national team players as well as in later stages of the tournament.
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